Key Takeaways from Your Trading Notes:

1. Imbalances May Play a Larger Role Than Trend Shifts:

   • You’ve noticed that the 50% retracements to fill imbalances have been more significant than focusing solely on trend shifts. This is a new realization that you need to integrate into your trading strategy, as imbalances can impact market moves more heavily than trend alone.

2. Focus on Imbalance-Filling Instead of Pure Trend Following:

   • Your strategy has primarily been trend-following, but the introduction of imbalances suggests that you need to balance both. Imbalances—especially in the form of retracements—can influence how the trend plays out, particularly in relation to shifts.

3. Current Month’s Trend Is Still Bullish:

   • While you’ve been anticipating a potential bearish continuation, the monthly trend is technically still bullish. This bullish bias might explain why the market hasn’t played out as you expected, and you may have overemphasized the downside potential.

4. Need for Further Data to Confirm Imbalance vs. Trend Influence:

   • You’ve recognized the need to collect more data to confirm whether imbalances truly hold more weight than trend shifts. The 3-day trend shift imbalance is still unfilled, which might indicate further price action in that direction.

5. Potential Continuation of Uptrend Despite Trend Shift:

   • The 4-day trend shift occurred, but the lower wick of the 4-day candle closed above the shift wick, along with the weekly candle. This implies a potential continuation of the uptrend, despite the trend shift, aligning with the unfilled imbalances.

Conclusion:

You’ve identified that imbalances may be a more dominant factor than trends in certain conditions. Moving forward, incorporating both trend analysis and imbalance-filling into your trading strategy will provide a more comprehensive approach. Also, be cautious of bearish biases in a technically bullish market, and gather more data to refine how imbalances affect your trades.

As I am analyzing this week, I am now aware of the fact that, one you add these 50% retracements, to fill the imbalance of the initial bearish trend shifts, its clear that I was too focused on the trend, rather than the imbalances. And this is something brand new introduced to me. As my trading strategy primarily focuses on trend following. 

Theres a couple reasons why the imbalances may have played a bigger factor than the actual trend shifts, and if this serves true, then there is still the 3 day trend shift imbalance that is yet to be filled.

One reason could be that the month trend is still technically bullish, and although bullish, I have convinced that this months bottom wick is not yet fully formed, but I could most certainly be wrong

And simply that imbalances hold more weight on trend shifts, but we will need more data in the future to confirm.

We are also aware going into the next week, that the 4D trend shift occured, but the lower wick of the 4D candle closed above the shift wick. including the Wk Candle. So it appears, that the trend may continue up.